👮‍♂️ Is ICE coming for your tenants?

👋 Hello, Best Ever readers! The world's first commercial lunar data center is set to launch later this month. It will provide backup storage and edge processing services from the Moon's surface. What a world universe.

In this week’s newsletter, immigration targets tenants, rent growth (almost) normalizes, malls bounce back, and banks return to CRE.

Today’s edition is presented by Vintage Capital, which is currently accepting investments in a diversified fund of recession-resilient mobile home parks. Discover more about investing in MHPs today.

Onward!

_{🗞 NO-FLUFF NEWS}
CRE HEADLINES

📊 Rent Report: U.S. apartment rents rose 0.16% in January, signaling marginal growth as the sector approaches normalization after recent declines. Occupancy averaged 94.9%, with the Midwest and Northeast performing well as the South and West struggled with oversupply. 

🏘️ Senior Housing Gap: U.S. senior housing faces a critical turning point as Baby Boomers age. While previous oversupply plagued the market, projections show a 360,000-unit shortage by 2030, with demand driven by an expected 25% growth in the 80+ population to 19 million.

🛍️ Mall Revival: Secondary malls are gaining renewed attention in 2025, with Walmart acquiring a Pittsburgh mall for redevelopment and Simon Property Group announcing plans to upgrade its B-grade malls despite challenges with department store anchors.

🤖 Re-Industrial Revolution: OpenAI is finalizing a $40 billion investment from SoftBank, potentially valuing the AI company at $260 billion as it scouts 16 states for data center campuses — a project that could “re-industrialize parts of the country.”

🚂 Tariff Train: President Trump signed an order this week implementing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The tariffs, affecting key metals used in transportation, construction, and packaging industries, are set to begin March 4.

_{🏆 TOP STORY}
IS YOUR TEAM PREPARED FOR AN ICE RAID?

President Trump’s immigration crackdown is effectively underway, and the potential impact on CRE is vast. However, one sector that could be disproportionately impacted is multifamily, specifically landlords in Class C, workforce, and affordable housing.

• The Scale: The mass deportation program could target 5.8 million households in the U.S. that are home to at least one resident lacking permanent legal status, according to an October report from the Center for Migration Studies. Of those, nearly five million households are home to mixed-status families — homes that include U.S. citizens and unauthorized immigrants.

• The Fallout: Mass deportation would drive nearly 10 million U.S. citizens into economic hardship. Median household income for mixed-status households could drop from $75,500 to $39,000 (nearly a 50% decline), according to the CMS, pricing many households out of their current rents and into lower-tier affordable housing.

However, the crackdown has the potential to directly impact multifamily landlords, property managers, and on-site staff even more dramatically, as Immigration and Customs Enforcement can often show up at residences to detain the undocumented.

There is a wealth of information landlords and property managers should know regarding how to handle these events. As always, consult legal counsel regarding this matter. Until then, here are a few key points, according to the NAA, that you landlords and property managers should know in case ICE shows up at one of your rental properties:

• Property Owner/Manager Rights: You have a right to privacy and are not required to allow ICE onto your property without a criminal warrant. You do not have to provide resident information or records to ICE without a criminal warrant. You can choose whether to cooperate, but non-cooperation could lead to more aggressive follow-up.

• How to Respond: As always, be cordial. However, you're not required to discuss anything with ICE agents. You have no obligation to provide the names of residents, immigration status information, resident logs/records, or any other resident information.

• Lease Implications: If a resident is detained by ICE, the lease remains valid. Security deposits must be handled according to state law. Personal property must be handled according to abandoned property laws. Remaining residents aren't automatically responsible unless they're on the lease.

Critical Warrant Distinction: ICE can issue a civil administrative warrant for an immigration arrest. But, even with that warrant, ICE agents cannot enter private property without permission. A criminal warrant, however, is signed by a judge and must be honored. So while warrants signed by ICE officers do not require you to grant access to private property, those signed by judges must be honored.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

It’s a lot, right? It’s a strange time to be a multifamily landlord — or any landlord. It’s important to understand your responsibility, what’s required of you and your team, and the potential consequences of your actions. Having employees who don’t know exactly what they are looking for or what to do in the heat of the moment could lead to liability issues. It’s a new, murky multifamily landscape, one that’s becoming increasingly difficult to navigate. Prepare your team accordingly.

_{💰 VINTAGE CAPITAL}
INVEST IN RECESSION-RESILIENT MOBILE HOME PARKS

Looking to beat the market by investing in a highly recession-resilient asset class?

Invest in Mobile Home Parks with Vintage Capital, a group with an $80 million+ cycle-tested track record. Invest direct or in a fund of 20+ underlying assets (1031s also available) and gain access to stable, income-generating properties with consistent demand and low tenant turnover.

Why Mobile Home Parks?

• Recession-Resilient: Affordable housing demand drives stable returns in any economy.

• High Tenant Retention: The average MHP tenant stays 10-12 years (compared to 2-3 in multifamily).

• Tax-Smart Investing: Bonus depreciation offers bigger tax advantages.

Beat the market by investing in Vintage Capital’s diversified portfolio of MHPs. With market conditions creating opportunities to acquire properties at attractive valuations, now is the time to take advantage of this highly recession-resilient asset class.

_{💰 CRE TRENDS}
CRE LENDING SURGED 37% YOY IN Q4

The CRE lending market bounced back in Q4 2024, with the CBRE Lending Momentum Index jumping 37% YoY and 21% from Q3. 

• Bank lending conditions have eased significantly, with the number of banks reporting tighter loan conditions nearly at zero in the Fed's latest survey. Banks claimed 43% of loan closings in Q4, the highest since Q1 2021, while life insurance companies and debt funds followed at 33% and 23%, respectively.

• Multifamily lending surged to $53 billion in Q4 (up 87% from Q3), with full-year volume reaching $120 billion (up 19%), driven by lower interest rates and strong apartment demand.

• Commercial mortgage spreads tightened to 184 bps (down 49 bps YoY), while multifamily spreads reached 156 bps. Underwritten cap rates decreased to 5.9%, debt yields fell to 9.4%, and LTV ratios rose to 64.1%, indicating growing lender confidence.

Looking ahead, 2025 should remain active as maturing debt drives refinancing and investment sales, CBRE says. Banks and agency-backed multifamily lending are expected to maintain momentum, supported by lower borrowing costs and strong fundamentals.

_{🖥️ BEST EVER CONFERENCE IX}
MEET TOP SPONSORS IN 4 MINUTES AT BEC!

Are you an accredited LP struggling to find Sponsors and deals worthy of your capital?

⚡The GP-LP Speed Networking event is one of the highlights of the Best Ever Conference. It's back this year and better than ever!

This curated networking experience puts you face-to-face with some of the event’s top-performing Sponsors. Each four-minute connection allows you to:

✅ Quickly assess potential partnerships

✅ Understand unique investment strategies

✅ Identify the opportunities that best align with your portfolio goals

This exclusive speed networking event is only available to Best Ever Conference attendees, so lock in your ticket below! Use promo code hurry25 at checkout for 25% off your purchase.

_{🏠 DEAL OF THE WEEK}
$5 MILLION INCREASE IN PROPERTY VALUE, 100% IRR, AND 2X EQUITY MULTIPLE IN 9 MONTHS

Nikita Zhitov and the team at CityPlat increased the value of this property by $5 million and delivered a 100% IRR and 2X equity multiple to investors in just nine months.

Here's how they did it 👇

🏢 Property Details: This 100-unit, Class C multifamily property is located in Raleigh, North Carolina, and was purchased in August 2021.

💸 Finances: The property was purchased for $8.3 million. The team raised $2.9 million in preferred equity (8% pref) in a 50/50 split with investors. They also secured a $5.8 million loan from a local regional bank at 3.5% interest.

💼 Business Plan: The team renovated 10 units, which included new flooring, kitchens, lighting, paint, and bathrooms. They also used the $400,000 CapEx budget to redo the property’s facade, parking lot, and landscaping. They were able to increase rents from a $650/unit average to a $795/unit average within seven months.

🍾 Results: The property was sold in May 2022 for $13.35 million (nine months after purchase). Investors realized 100% IRR and a 2X equity multiple after closing.

💪 Biggest Challenge: “Interest rates started climbing, so we didn't fully execute on our CapEx plan and rent-increase plan,” Zhitov said. “Although we didn't want to sell within a 12-month window to avoid short-term capital gains, we saw that if we waited just another 3-4 months, the market could have shifted completely, and we likely wouldn't be able to sell it at all.”

If you have a deal you'd like us to feature, share it with us!

_{🎓 EXPERT RESOURCES}
FREE DOCUMENT DOWNLOAD

5-Step Process for Securing Passive Investor Commitments for Apartment Syndications

Syndicators should expect to require 30%–40% of the total project costs in order to close an apartment deal. These remaining costs come from a combination of the general partners (i.e., the syndication team) and the limited partners (i.e., passive investors), with the majority generally coming from the limited partners. This document outlines the five-step process for securing those financial commitments from passive investors after an apartment deal is under contract.