💰 The deals driving CRE's big comeback

👋 Happy Sunday, Best Ever readers! It’s almost December, which means it’s almost 2026. Let that sink in….

In today’s newsletter, mid-cap deals drive, retail gets creative, LIHTC struggles, permits move fast (and slow), and much more.

⏰ The clock is ticking! Lock in up to $500 in savings on your Best Ever Conference X ticket before prices jump at midnight, and secure your access to 30+ sessions with operators actively closing deals right now. Get your ticket now.

▶️ Also, learn how experienced operators generate exceptional returns in the gap between raw land and breaking ground without taking on construction risk or debt. Join us December 4 at 12 pm ET for Land Entitlement: The Under-the-Radar Strategy Producing Top-Tier Development Returns. Register now.

Let’s CRE!

🗞️ NO-FLUFF NEWS
CRE HEADLINES

🏛️ RealPage Sues NY: RealPage has sued New York over its first-in-nation ban on rent-pricing software just days after settling federal antitrust allegations without admitting wrongdoing or paying fines, claiming the law unconstitutionally restricts revenue management tools.

📉 Lender Confidence: Industrial loan spreads have hit a 2025 low of 149 bps as balance sheet lenders show renewed appetite for low-leverage CRE debt, declining an average of 2.13 bps monthly since May despite broader economic uncertainty.

🎨 Creative Retail: Zero Empty Spaces has transformed 33 vacant retail locations into artist studios across 150K SF, filling spaces for 24-36 months at $300/month. Twenty-five of its 33 locations have since secured permanent tenants as landlords weaponize art to drive foot traffic.

⚠️ Affordability Strain: LIHTC performance slipped in 2024, as a record 16.9% of properties landed on watch lists and one in four stabilized projects reported operating deficits, signaling potential trouble ahead as insurance and maintenance costs continue outpacing rent growth.

⚡ Peak Power: Data center construction spending doubled between 2024 and 2025, but analysts project the boom will plateau post-2026 as hyperscalers shift from front-loaded land acquisition to capital-efficient deployments.

🏆 TOP STORY
MID-CAP DEALS ARE DRIVING CRE’S 2025 REBOUND

October delivered $34.6 billion in major CRE transactions, up 28% from September's $27 billion, but the surge wasn't driven by mega-deals. Instead, mid-cap transactions between $50 million and $100 million hit their highest level of the year, signaling the market's middle tier is coming alive after years of institutional dominance at the top.

LightBox tracked 94 mid-cap deals in October with a collective price tag of $6.6 billion, well above the year-to-date average of 65 transactions per month. Meanwhile, deals above $100 million fell from 58 in September to 52 in October, still above the year's average of 44 but no longer carrying the entire market on their backs.

For investors and operators working in the $50 million to $100 million range — where many multifamily GPs and regional players live — October's data suggests capital is flowing back into deals that don't require billion-dollar balance sheets. LightBox head of data strategy Manus Clancy called it "a more balanced market environment," noting that "confidence among lenders and investors continues to build as the year winds down."

Broad-based activity across sectors:

• Multifamily led with 24% of deal volume, reflecting continued investor appetite despite subdued rent growth and elevated vacancy in some markets.

• Office captured 21%, driven by selective bets on prime assets and distressed opportunities as pricing resets attract value players.

• Retail took 20%, benefiting from tight vacancy (just above historic lows) and limited new supply keeping fundamentals stable.

• Land sales jumped to 11%, up from 8% MoM, as demand grows for sites tied to housing, data centers, and multifamily development.

Among trades with prior purchase history, 68% sold above their previous price while 32% took losses. Office accounted for eight of the ten steepest discounts, while data center and Northern Virginia land deals posted explosive gains as demand for AI infrastructure reshapes site values.

THE BOTTOM LINE

October's mid-cap momentum suggests the transaction market is broadening beyond institutional mega-deals. For mid-market investors, capital is available, and deal volume is climbing. The question now is whether this momentum carries into 2026 or whether macroeconomic headwinds will stall the recovery.

🎉 BEST EVER CONFERENCE
PRICES GO UP IN A FEW HOURS!

By this time tomorrow, Best Ever Conference X ticket prices will have increased. But before that happens, we want to give you one last shot to lock in the best price — and let you know what you're getting.

✅ Our full conference program just went live, and it's worth a look.

You'll find 30+ sessions led by operators who are actively deploying capital and closing deals, not just talking about it. Deep dives into multifamily, industrial, retail, office, and emerging asset classes. Economic forecasts from leading experts. Workshops designed to give you skills you can use immediately. Networking events that will have you leaving BEC with new partners, new leads, and new investments.

The bottom line: If you register before midnight tonight, you'll save up to $500. After tonight, these savings disappear.

▶️ YOU’RE INVITED
THE HIGH PROFIT PHASE MOST DEVELOPERS OVERLOOK

The true constraint fueling the housing shortage in many markets isn't the building phase — it's securing entitled, development-ready land. This 2-3 year journey through permits, zoning, and engineering is where savvy operators unlock exceptional returns without construction risk, financing requirements, or extended ownership.

🗓️ Join us with Peter Neill from GSP REI on December 4 at 12 pm ET for Land Entitlement: The Under-the-Radar Strategy Producing Top-Tier Development Returns.

During this session, you'll learn:

✅ Why land entitlement offers some of the strongest risk-adjusted returns in real estate development

✅ How to build substantial value before construction begins

✅ Why major homebuilders pay premiums for entitled sites

✅ The full blueprint from raw land to lucrative exit

Learn how to secure and entitle residential land in sought-after markets, then sell to institutional buyers at substantial profit margins.

💰 CRE TRENDS
WHERE PERMITS ARE MOVING FASTEST — AND SLOWEST

With construction costs up and financing tight, permitting delays have shifted from nuisance to deal-killer, making approval speed a top site selection factor. Labrynth's 2025 Red Tape Index ranks 500 U.S. cities by speed, transparency, and YoY improvement in development approvals, establishing a go-to resource for where permitting is fastest, and where it lags long enough to potentially kill deals.

🐇 Top performers: Fort Worth leads the nation in permitting efficiency with a 0.96 score as Southern and Midwestern cities dominate the leaderboard. Minnesota captures four of the top ten spots (Lakeville, Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Duluth). Fort Wayne (IN), Pocatello (ID), Cedar Rapids (IA), Grand Prairie (TX), and Taunton (MA) round out the leaders, all benefiting from digital systems and streamlined procedures.

🐢 Bottom dwellers: Cambridge, Massachusetts, scored just 0.22, while Los Angeles ranked 492nd as permitting delays hinder both post-disaster recovery and new development. Germantown (MD), Watsonville (CA), Danbury (CT), and Providence (RI) also struggle with high friction and inefficiency.

Cities that improve transparency offer execution advantages, while coastal and Northeastern metros continue battling dense regulation. Labrynth plans to expand the Index in 2026 with county-level analysis, providing granular insights into where deals move fast and where they die in paperwork.

🎙️ THE BEST EVER CRE SHOW
THE ONE QUESTION EVERY LP SHOULD ASK SPONSORS

Bronson Hill has raised over $50 million across multiple asset classes. This week, he joined Pascal Wagner on the Best Ever CRE Show with a contrarian take on sponsor due diligence. 

While some investors deploy 150-point checklists before writing a check, Bronson argues that one simple question can reveal more than any spreadsheet: “How did you handle a deal that went sideways?”

If a sponsor claims perfect performance, that's your red flag. Either they're inexperienced, or they're lying to you. No deal ever performs exactly as planned — markets shift, tenants leave, contractors disappoint. What separates good operators from dangerous ones isn't avoiding problems, it's how they respond when problems hit.

What you're actually listening for:

• Did they communicate immediately when issues arose, or did investors find out months later?

• What specific actions did they take to protect capital?

• Do they take accountability or blame external factors?

The answer reveals character, transparency, and operational competence in ways that track record slides in PowerPoint presentations never will.

Beyond the one question: Bronson still checks reputation through non-curated referrals, verifies they underpromise and overdeliver consistently, and prioritizes long-term debt over bridge loans. But he's learned that authentic communication trumps polished presentations. He references an insight from Eckhart Tolle: Sometimes your brain says the data looks fine, but your gut signals something's off. Trust the gut.

The real due diligence isn't about asking more questions, it's about asking the right one and actually listening to how they answer it.

🎙️ Listen to Bronson's full episode here.