🚗 This community banned cars. Here's what happened.

👋 Happy Sunday, Best Ever readers!

In today’s newsletter, a car-less community thrives, submarkets explode, construction costs surge, and recession fears grow.

Today’s weekend edition is presented by Viking Capital, which is excited to announce its latest investment opportunity, Peoria Gateway, a luxurious 200-unit apartment community set to debut in 2026.

🚨 Also, if you haven’t heard, the Best Ever Community is now FREE for all qualified investors! Apply here to join. For serious investors only.

Let’s CRE!

🗞️ NO-FLUFF NEWS
CRE HEADLINES

Million-Unit Club: ​​Greystar is approaching one million units under management, with 122,545 owned units and 946,742 managed as of January 1, remaining atop NMHC's list of the biggest apartment industry owners and managers.

Supply Peak: U.S. apartment supply has finally peaked at 576,700 units delivered in the year-ending Q1 2025, slightly below 2024's record 585,200 units. Annual completions are forecast to drop to 431,200 units by EOY before normalizing in 2026. Multifamily permitting has fallen 16% YoY.

Growing Submarkets: Eight submarkets with 30,000+ units saw their apartment inventory grow by more than 50% in the past five years. Phoenix's Avondale/Goodyear led with 116.7% growth, followed by five Texas submarkets, including Round Rock/Georgetown (69.9%) and Allen/McKinney (67.3%).

Report Card: Despite enrollment growing 1.7% YoY, student housing shows signs of softening, with preleasing slowing to 67.1% and rent growth cooling to 2.5% in March. Supply declined to 35,703 beds in 2024, concentrated at Power 5 universities, while smaller markets have struggled. 

Amazon Expansion: Amazon reportedly plans to invest up to $15 billion in 80 new U.S. logistics facilities, primarily delivery hubs with some multi-story fulfillment centers. The e-commerce giant will consider 15-25 year leases and may fund some sites directly.

🏆 TOP STORY
INSIDE THE FUTURISTIC COMMUNITY THAT BANNED CARS

Two years after opening, Culdesac Tempe — the self-proclaimed "first car-free neighborhood in America" — has established itself as a notable experiment in sustainable urban living. Despite initial skepticism about building a car-free community in one of America's most automobile-dependent regions, residents are finding value in this alternative approach to city living.

The experimental community is located on a 17-acre site approximately 15 miles east of downtown Phoenix and was designed to prioritize walkability, reduce carbon footprints, and foster community connections. The $200 million development now houses about 300 tenants across 288 apartment units and will eventually house roughly 1,000 residents across 760 units. Studio rents start around $1,300, with three-bedroom units reaching $2,800 — rates that range from average to slightly above market for Tempe. 

• The community is designed with narrow 10-15 foot paseos between clusters of white stucco buildings that promote wind flow and cross-ventilation, prioritizing intimate social spaces in lieu of parking lots and garages. Resident Sheryl Murdock, a postdoctoral researcher at ASU, compares the feel to "Mykonos" with its bright white buildings and colorful accents.

• A growing retail ecosystem features 22 businesses, including a Korean market, coffee shop, bike shop, James Beard-nominated restaurant, laundry service, and beer garden, creating a "15-minute city" where most daily needs are accessible by foot. One 24-year-old blind resident even told The New York Times, "In order to have a good time or have fun, I do not have to cross the street."

• Resident incentives include free e-bikes, transit passes, and $5/hour on-site car rentals for occasional trips beyond the community, plus proximity to the 30-mile Valley Metro Rail connecting Phoenix and Mesa. It also features neighborhood-wide Wi-Fi, a fitness center, a dog park, coworking spaces, and a community swimming pool.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

In a new commercial landscape where malls and office parks are being transformed into microcities, Culdesac Tempe demonstrates that car-free communities can succeed even in auto-dependent Arizona. Urban planners believe this model could inspire similar developments in locations like shuttered strip malls, addressing housing affordability while reducing emissions, all while challenging a core assumption of real estate development: that new housing requires parking.

🏘️ VIKING CAPITAL
INTRODUCING PEORIA GATEWAY

Viking Capital’s Peoria Gateway is a luxurious 200-unit apartment community set to debut in 2026 in the rapidly growing city of Peoria, Arizona. Designed with modern luxury, this premier development is a top-tier Class A property, offering state-of-the-art, resort-style amenities that elevate the living experience in a supply-constrained rental market surrounded by solid job growth.

• Why Peoria? This vibrant community along the growth corridor to Phoenix is experiencing a clear housing shortage, especially for newer, amenity-rich rentals. Limited supply, growing demand, and a rising population create ideal conditions for strong absorption, premium rents, and long-term appreciation.

• Why new development? Peoria is facing a clear housing shortage, especially when it comes to newer, amenity-rich rentals. This market gap presents a compelling opportunity for investors: limited supply, growing demand, and a rising population create ideal conditions for strong absorption, premium rents, and long-term appreciation. Strategic new development in this environment isn’t just smart — it’s high-yield.

Partnering with a developer with a proven track record, Viking Capital continues its commitment to identifying low-risk opportunities that preserve investor capital while maximizing long-term growth potential. Backed by its own track record of $800 million in assets and over 5,000 units, Viking Capital is your path to building wealth through real estate.

To learn more about Viking Capital and the Peoria Gateway investment opportunity, which is available for you right now, click the button below and get started today.

💰 CRE TRENDS
CONSTRUCTION COSTS JUST KEEP RISING

Construction material costs continued their upward trend in March, with construction input prices rising 0.5% overall and 0.6% for nonresidential projects. Both categories are now 0.8% higher than a year ago.

• Q1 2025 input prices have risen at a 9.7% annualized rate.

• Tariff impacts are evident, with iron and steel, steel mill products, and copper wire prices all jumping more than 5% in March.

• Despite falling crude petroleum costs, the prices of natural gas, steel, copper, and wood rose more than enough to offset the drop.

Economist Anirban Basu warns that while contractors currently have healthy backlogs, the combination of rapidly escalating material costs and increasing market uncertainty will likely lead to project delays and cancellations if these trends continue.

🎙️ THE BEST EVER CRE SHOW
WHAT TARIFFS AND A LOOMING RECESSION MEAN FOR CRE

It may seem like the sky is falling. Aggressive new tariff policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, consumer sentiment has plummeted to 51 (down from 72 in December), and Goldman Sachs now forecasts a 65% recession probability. On his latest Best Ever CRE Show segment, “The Horizon,” Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang discussed what it all means for CRE, and why the sector may be more resilient than we think.

• Multifamily Demand Warning Signs: The historical correlation between consumer sentiment (now at 51, down from 72) and apartment absorption suggests Q2-Q4 2024 will see significantly weakened rental demand, creating potential challenges for markets with heavy delivery pipelines.
  

• Regional Industrial Space Demand Shifts: Trade policy changes, especially the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, will reshape industrial demand patterns. Ports expecting significant import drops will impact warehouse needs in connected markets like the Inland Empire and Phoenix.
  

• Interest Rate Volatility: The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from below 4% to 4.5% in just one week — a highly unusual move. This volatility creates both challenges and potential opportunities for CRE financing, with Chang advising investors to "be ready to strike when the opportunity arises" as brief windows for favorable rates may appear.
  

• Office Space Demand Uncertainty: Potential business formation slowdowns and rising unemployment could have mixed effects on office absorption, with regional variations likely.

Despite market turbulence, Chang believes CRE offers better risk-adjusted returns than stocks or bonds, citing structurally low retail vacancy rates, improving apartment and office vacancies, and industrial vacancy holding at 7% — all while long-term fundamentals remain strong for multifamily, retail, and industrial, offering stability for patient investors despite market variations.

🎙️ For more from Chang on the state of both the economy and CRE, listen to his full episode here.

🎓 TIP OF THE WEEK
FROM THE BEST EVER COMMUNITY

HOW TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL ON LINKEDIN

LinkedIn has emerged as a powerful digital venue for raising capital, but it's difficult to know where to start. According to Amy Silvis, who has $344M AUM and has raised millions online, the key is to approach LinkedIn with a "Go-Giver" mindset. The algorithm rewards those who consistently provide value. Post 5-7 times weekly (addressing your target avatar's pain points), comment genuinely on others' content, and optimize your profile to show how you help people. The more you give on LinkedIn, she says, the more investors you'll attract.

👉 Amy’s full workshop is available exclusively in the Best Ever Community. Click the button below to apply to join and go to the Events & Replays page for this and expert resources.