🚀 This market is leading CRE in 2025. Here's why.

👋 Hello, Best Ever readers! We’re going to talk about Dallas today, but let’s keep thinking about the Texas Hill Country. If you’re compelled to help as communities recover and rebuild from the devastating floods experienced this week, you can do so here.

In today’s newsletter, Dallas keeps winning, copper takes a hit, Florida locks up, rent growth slows, and much more.

🎙️ Also, we want to hear from you, Best Ever CRE Show listeners! Please take two minutes to fill out this brief survey and enter for your chance to win a $150 Amazon gift card.

Let’s CRE!

🗞️ NO-FLUFF NEWS
CRE HEADLINES

⚡ Copper Tariffs: Copper prices have hit a record $5.89/pound after Trump announced a 50% import tariff, marking the largest intraday spike since 1989. The surge drastically threatens construction costs, as copper is essential for electrical systems, HVAC, and plumbing.

🔒 Security Mandate: Florida's House Bill 837 now holds apartment owners legally liable for on-site crimes unless they've installed required security cameras, deadbolt locks, and upgraded lighting. Compliant properties receive lawsuit protection that could serve as a national model.

📦 Split Sectors: Retail posted its first negative net absorption since 2020 in Q1 as physical store expansion slowed, while industrial absorbed over 100 MSF, driven by e-commerce growth. Health and personal care retailers bucked the trend with 7.7% YoY sales growth.

🏘️ Occupancy Gains: U.S. apartment occupancy rose 140 bps to 95.6% in June, according to RealPage, with only six of the top 150 markets seeing declines. Lincoln, NE, led losses at 100 bps due to supply-demand mismatches, while most lagging markets still maintained 95%+ occupancy.

​​📈 Activity Surge: The LightBox CRE Activity Index hit 113.9 in June, its highest level since May 2022 and 21% higher YoY, signaling renewed market momentum. Property listings rose for the sixth straight month while lender-driven appraisals rebounded 19% MoM.

🏆 TOP STORY
THE DALLAS METROPLEX CAN’T STOP, WON’T STOP

The Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex has emerged as America's most dynamic growth story, transforming from an agricultural hub into a sprawling economic juggernaut that's redefining suburban expansion. North of Dallas is experiencing rapid growth, with the corridor emerging as one of America's fastest-growing regions, pulling in droves of newcomers from California to India and turning them into newly minted Texans.

• Population Explosion: Frisco alone has surged from 6,000 residents in 1990 to over 240,000 today, with planners expecting the city to reach 350,000 residents in the next five years.

• Corporate Migration: Major companies — including Toyota, Amazon Web Services, State Farm, Texas Instruments ($40 billion semiconductor campus), and others — are establishing significant operations in the region.

The multifamily market reflects this explosive growth, with Dallas leading the nation in apartment development and investment activity. Dallas-Fort Worth took the lead as the nation's most active multifamily market for new construction in 2024, with developers completing 33,276 units across 127 projects — a 27.9% increase from 2023. The market maintains robust fundamentals despite supply pressures, positioning it for long-term success.

• Investment Volume Leadership: Dallas tops national charts with 103,983 units financed since January 2024, far surpassing New York's 67,833 units, while ranking third nationally in property count with 440 properties.

• Pipeline Strength: The construction pipeline remained robust with 56,575 units underway as of January 2025, with more than half concentrated in high-growth North Dallas submarkets.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Dallas still represents a generational opportunity for CRE investors. With employment growth at 1.6% YoY (above the 1.3% U.S. rate) and unemployment at just 3.5%, the fundamentals support continued apartment demand. While current supply pressures create near-term headwinds, the massive corporate relocations and population influx virtually guarantee long-term rental demand, making Dallas an essential market for any serious multifamily portfolio.

💰 CRE BY THE NUMBERS
RENT GROWTH SLOWS, OFFICE SALES SURGE, AND MORE

🏠 0.9% 

U.S. apartment rent growth slowed to 0.9% YoY in Q2, the first quarterly decline since early 2024, as surging construction gave renters more choices. San Francisco led major markets with 5.1% growth, while luxury properties continued outperforming at 1.8% annually.

⚫ $7.3 Billion 

BlackRock acquired net lease giant ElmTree Funds and its $7.3 billion in assets through a stock swap with performance incentives, targeting the estimated $1 trillion net lease market. The deal expands BlackRock's private credit platform following its $157 billion HPS Investment Partners acquisition.

💰 35%

First-half CMBS issuance surged 35% to $59.5 billion, the largest volume in over 15 years, with single-asset deals dominating at nearly three-quarters of total volume. Wells Fargo led bookrunners with $10.7 billion, while Blackstone collateral backed $11.2 billion in deals.

🏘️ 227,000 

U.S. apartment demand hit record highs with over 227,000 units absorbed in Q2 2025, according to RealPage, surpassing previous annual records as national occupancy climbed to 95.6%. Operators prioritized filling units over rent growth, with June posting just 0.19% monthly increases.

🏢 $40.8 Billion 

Office sales volume surged 69% over the past four quarters to $40.8 billion as trophy and Class A assets dominated 71% of transactions. Gateway markets — including Manhattan, Miami, and Los Angeles — experienced marked rebounds despite overall availability remaining at 23.2%.

🏘️ DEAL OF THE WEEK
$30 MILLION INCREASE IN PROPERTY VALUE IN 3 YEARS

Jonah Bamberger and the team at Aulder Capital added $30 million in value to this multifamily property in just three years.

Here's how they did it 👇

🏢 Property Details: This 248-unit Class B multifamily property, located in Yardley, PA, was purchased in 2019.

💸 Finances: The property was purchased for $52 million, and the team raised $24 million in capital. They were also able to secure a $40.19 million loan at a 3.96% blended fixed interest rate.

💼 Business Plan: The team renovated 139 of the units to a luxury scope and managed to increase rents by more than 20%. They also leveraged Aulder’s vertically integrated operating platform to improve operations and streamline the renovation process. This included replacing the existing property management with Aulder’s in-house team.

The team allocated a specific budget for social initiatives to directly improve the lives of their residents, which included complimentary healthy snacks for children, after-school enrichment programs, educational seminars, and extracurricular activities.

🍾 Results: The property sold for $82 million in June of 2022. Investors saw a 21.3% IRR and an equity multiple of 1.76x at the time of sale.

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