🎓 What really happens to dead college campuses?

👋 Happy Sunday, Best Ever readers!

In today’s newsletter, colleges close, hotels pause, absorption soars, Ash Patel gets creative, and much more.

Today's edition is presented by Best Ever Conference X. Upgrade your conference experience with Conference Plus and VIP tickets. Prices increase on October 1, so grab your seat today!

⚡ Also … 48 hours left to register for Understanding the Energy Crisis — a free 30-minute session on what's really happening in energy markets and how you can capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap. September 23 at 2:30 pm ET.

Let’s CRE!

🗞️ NO-FLUFF NEWS
CRE HEADLINES

🏛️ Policy Overhaul: The D.C. Council passed the Rental Act this week, reforming tenant purchase rights and streamlining evictions. The legislation exempts buildings under 15 years old from TOPA requirements and reduces notice-to-eviction periods from 30 to 10 days.

🌊 RTO Floodgates: Amazon's five-day office mandate one year ago triggered widespread corporate policy changes, with 55% of Fortune 100 companies now requiring full-week attendance versus 5% two years ago, driving increased leasing activity nationwide.

🏨 Hotel Pause: One survey shows that 32% of hotel owners have delayed projects while 24% scaled back developments amid rising costs and demand slumps, with leisure bookings down 30% and business travel declining 15-17%.

🎓 Preleasing Boom: Student housing preleasing reached 93.7% in August, outpacing last year despite rent growth cooling to 1.1% YoY as new supply in Arizona, Tennessee, and Central Florida markets dampened pricing power and leasing momentum.

💰 Retirement Dreams: Two-thirds of U.S. voters want real estate alternatives in their 401(k)s, according to a BlackRock survey, with bipartisan support potentially funneling fresh capital from the $12 trillion retirement market into CRE.

🏆 TOP STORY
WHEN COLLEGES CLOSE, WHO GETS THE REAL ESTATE?

The crisis in higher education is creating one of the largest redevelopment opportunities in decades. Nearly 600 college institutions closed from 2017 to 2020, reducing the total number of U.S. colleges and universities by 8.7%. The pace has accelerated since the pandemic, with up to 370 private colleges forecasted to shutter or merge within the next decade.

The culprit is the "demographic cliff" — a sharp decline in college-age students coinciding with souring attitudes toward higher education and mounting institutional debt. Shuttered colleges leave behind massive properties in prime locations — and with them, massive opportunity, which developers and cities are capitalizing on in a variety of ways.

• The Opportunities: Campus properties offer unique advantages: large contiguous sites in established neighborhoods, existing infrastructure, and often historic buildings. Dormitories convert readily to multifamily housing, while academic buildings can become office space, senior housing, or mixed-use developments.

• The Challenges: Campus redevelopment requires patient capital and expertise. Purpose-built facilities like auditoriums and laboratories resist easy conversion. Historical designations can complicate adaptive reuse, while deferred maintenance adds costs. Successful projects often require public-private partnerships and community engagement to navigate zoning considerations.

Here are some case studies from recent closings and subsequent developments:

💰 Quick Flip Success: Property Markets Group's acquisition of Johnson & Wales University's North Miami campus — and rapid flip for more than double the purchase price within a year — demonstrates the immediate profit potential when location and timing align.

🎬 Revenue During Redevelopment: After the College of Santa Fe closed, the city planned to transform the 60-acre campus into a mixed-use development. During development, the former Greer Garson Film Studios generated immediate revenue, shooting for Netflix, Apple TV, and Paramount.

🏛️ Public Intervention Model: When Albany's College of Saint Rose closed in 2024 after accumulating $50 million in debt, New York created the Albany County Pine Hills Land Authority, which purchased the entire 30-acre campus for $35 million in bankruptcy court, outbidding investors to control the development’s fate.

⚠️ Cautionary Tale: Daniel Webster College's 52-acre campus in Nashua, New Hampshire, has remained largely unused since closing in 2017. Current owner Xinhua Educational Consulting Services hasn't shared redevelopment plans and buildings are visibly deteriorating, demonstrating the risks when campuses fall into the hands of investors without clear adaptive reuse strategies.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The opportunity pipeline continues expanding as financial pressures mount on small private colleges, particularly in the Northeast and Rust Belt. College closures represent a generational opportunity for investors willing to navigate complex transactions, and those who develop campus acquisition expertise may find themselves positioned in one of CRE's most compelling emerging sectors.

🎉 TOGETHER WITH BEST EVER CONFERENCE
UPGRADE YOUR BEC X EXPERIENCE

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Here's what each ticket level gets you:

🎟️ Conference Plus: $895 (normally $1,495)

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💰 CRE TRENDS
MULTIFAMILY ABSORPTION NEARS 25-YEAR HIGH

The multifamily sector delivered one of its strongest demand quarters in 25 years during Q2, absorbing over 116,000 units while the development pipeline contracted to its lowest levels since 2016.

🧮 By the Numbers:

• 216,000 units absorbed through first half of 2025, matching last year's near-record pace.

• Fewer than 500,000 units under construction nationally, the lowest since 2016.

• Under-construction inventory represents only 3.8% of total stock, less than half the 2023 peak.

• Net absorption outpaced new supply for the second consecutive quarter.

• New deliveries up 18% QoQ but down 22% YoY.

• Only 11 markets saw pipeline increases during the past year.

Major markets experienced significant pipeline contractions, with Dallas/Fort Worth dropping 22,000 units and New York and Austin each declining about 18,000 units. Financing difficulties and economic uncertainty have sharply reduced new construction starts.

Owners are prioritizing occupancy over rent growth, resulting in improved occupancy rates up 20 bps YTD but slower rent growth at 1.7% annually. Gateway cities demonstrate strong performance, with San Francisco leading national rent growth at 6.8% YoY, while San Jose and Chicago both recorded 4.5% growth.

Despite strong historical demand levels, seasonally-adjusted data suggests potential softening as consumer sentiment weighs on leasing activity. Vacancy remains 200 bps above the long-term 7% average.

📩 YOU’RE INVITED!
48 HOURS: UNDERSTANDING THE ENERGY CRISIS

While everyone talks renewables, a massive oil and gas supply crisis is creating opportunities most investors miss.

This Tuesday, September 23, at 2:30 pm EST, join us alongside Ben Fraser from Aspen Funds for Understanding the Energy Crisis, a free 30-minute session on what's really happening in energy markets.

You'll discover:

• Why the energy crisis runs deeper than headlines suggest

• Where smart money is actually going in energy

• Specific yield strategies from energy investments

Live Q&A included. Register even if you can't attend—we'll send the replay.

🎙️ THE BEST EVER CRE SHOW
DEAL-SOURCING STRATEGIES THAT BUILT A $50M+ PORTFOLIO

Ash Patel is the founder of Invest Beyond Multifamily and has built a $50+ million portfolio by targeting properties that slip through the cracks of traditional marketing channels. Unlike multifamily, where brokers craft polished narratives and comprehensive offering memorandums, commercial deals often receive minimal marketing attention, creating opportunities for savvy investors.

This week on the Best Ever CRE Show, Ash joined John Casmon to discuss the creative deal-sourcing strategies he uses to find commercial deals.

• Target Small, Independent Brokers: Large firms have teams to verify every detail, but smaller brokers may lack resources for thorough marketing. Look for typos, missing square footage, or incomplete property descriptions that deter other buyers.

• Monitor Business-for-Sale Listings: Search business broker websites for properties bundled with failing operations. "I had a building that was listed as a bar restaurant for sale,” Ash says, “and … oh yeah, the real estate's included." These hybrid listings often fly under the radar of traditional real estate investors.

• Check Broker-Specific Websites: Ash has seen a number of commercial brokers who only list properties on their own websites. “They don't use LoopNet, they don't use CREXI,” he says. “Their homemade little website is where they post all their deals."

• Respond Immediately to New Listings: Commercial deals move faster than multifamily. “I've made offers on these listings that are maybe minutes old,” Ash says. “And as soon as I call or get a hold of the broker, they'll say, ‘Yeah, we just signed a contract.’” So, he says, move quickly.

• Look for Marketing Inconsistencies: One broker, Ash Notes, advertised 20,000 square feet when county records showed 40,000 square feet. The property appeared to be overpriced, scaring away other buyers. This created an opportunity to acquire the property with little competition.

While multifamily investors compete over polished packages, commercial opportunities hide in plain sight through poor marketing, unconventional channels, and broker oversight. Success requires speed, creativity, and a willingness to dig deeper than surface-level listings.

🎙️ Listen to Ash’s full episode here.

▶️ WORKSHOP REPLAY
WHEN YOUR NETWORK RUNS DRY

📞 While other GPs tap into their family and friends list again…

The top 1% are building thought leadership assets that bring deals to them.

What's their secret? Well, most of them published a book that’s working 24/7 to bring them leads and establish them as a go-to commercial real estate authority.

📚 We recently hosted a book publishing workshop to show you exactly how a book could add up to seven-figures per year in revenue to your business, how to write your first draft in a weekend, and how to launch it with immediate revenue.

Stop chasing deals. Start attracting them.