🔮 Why 2027 could look a lot like 2019

👋 Hello, Best Ever readers! Amazon executives believe the company could replace over 500,000 jobs with robots. They’re coming 🤖 ….

In today’s newsletter, multifamily turns back the clock, the shutdown continues, retail rises, rent concessions keep coming, and much more.

✅ Ash Patel has closed dozens of NNN deals. Now, he's teaching you his exact framework in the all-new NNN Fast Track Course. Learn more, and enroll now.

🎤 PLUS … the Best Ever Pitch Slam is back! Get on stage, pitch your deal to 1,000+ investors, and change your capital-raising game. Apply today.

Let’s CRE!

🗞️ NO-FLUFF NEWS
CRE HEADLINES

🏛️ Shutdown, Day 23: The federal shutdown has hit CRE hardest in D.C., Hawaii, and New Mexico as lease renewals freeze and tourism drops, costing $400 million daily while mortgage approvals and property deals stall.

💰 Secondaries Surge: Real estate secondaries transactions reached $24.3 billion globally in 2024, up 3.8% from 2023, with GP-led deals accounting for 65% of activity as multifamily and industrial sectors dominated volume.

🌎 Southeast Dominance: The Southeast captured 66.2% of CRE project activity in Q2 despite capital share dropping 11.5% as fundraising tightened. Multifamily drew 67.6% of Q1 capital while "other" property types represented 60% of volume.

🏠 Insurance Caps: Property insurance costs have jumped 50% since 2020 — so much so that Illinois, Louisiana, and New York are considering price caps on premiums, though Insurers warn that rate controls will force market exits, reducing coverage availability for property owners.

🏢 Office Upswing: Office vacancy fell for the first time since 2019, dropping to 22.5% in Q3 as leasing rebounded to 52.4M SF and new construction hit 6M SF — down 84% from 2019.

🏆 TOP STORY
WHY 2027 COULD LOOK A LOT LIKE 2019

After years of whiplash from pandemic demand spikes, construction surges, and volatile rent growth, multifamily is slowly stabilizing — so much so that Yardi Matrix projects national rent growth to slow to 2% by 2027, signaling a return to pre-pandemic market dynamics. The forecast represents a slight downward revision from Yardi's earlier 3% projection, but the adjustment reflects something more significant: The era of double-digit rent hikes is over. 

With the market normalizing after years of extremes, the Yardi brass have updated key projections for 2027:

• Rent Growth: 2% annually, consistent with pre-pandemic norms.

• Annual Deliveries: Stabilizing around 400,000 units, aligned with historical averages.

• Occupancy: Mid-90% range, supported by strong renewal rates and limited turnover.

• Demand Drivers: Household formation is expected to rebound mid-decade as new inventory comes online.

Construction is aligning with demand. Projects from 2022-23 are still in the pipeline, but high costs have slowed new starts. Despite elevated completions, structural housing shortages prevent sharp rent corrections as supply and demand move toward equilibrium.

The strategic shift is clear: Future gains hinge on operational efficiency, not market timing. With expense pressures from insurance and utilities elevated, cost control becomes critical as income growth moderates. Operators must pivot from chasing rent spikes to managing expenses, improving retention, and optimizing operations.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Predictability is the new asset. The next phase rewards disciplined execution over market speculation, allowing underwriting to return to stable parameters focused on long-term performance. For GPs, this means the playbook is shifting from riding rent growth waves to winning on operations and efficiency. A market that looks like 2019 might not be exciting, but it's predictable. And in today's environment, that's worth more than another rent spike.

🎯 BEST EVER COURSES
MASTER TRIPLE NET INVESTING WITH ASH PATEL

Sick of bidding wars over mediocre cap rates? What if your tenants handled repairs, maintenance, AND property improvements?

That's triple net investing. And Ash Patel just made it easy to learn. After closing dozens of NNN deals nationwide, Ash partnered with Matt Faircloth to create The NNN Fast Track Course, showing you exactly how to source, analyze, and close these passive income deals.

What you get:

🎥 5 comprehensive video modules covering sourcing, CAM structures, anchor tenant analysis, retail pro formas, and closing.

📋 Full implementation toolkit with worksheets, templates, and checklists you can use immediately.

💼 5 real deal case studies, including one where a student discovered a strip mall that everyone else walked past.

🎯 Battle-tested frameworks for evaluating deals with confidence.

Long-term leases. Professional tenants. Zero landlord drama. Ready to learn?

💰 CRE BY THE NUMBERS
RETAIL ABSORPTION, RENT CONCESSIONS, AND MORE

🏬 4.6M SF 

Retail recorded 4.6M SF of positive net absorption in Q3 despite an 8.6% decline in leasing activity. Both malls and shopping centers added over 1M SF of occupancy, keeping availability near historic lows as the holiday season approaches.

📉 -22%

International student enrollment plummeted nationwide as the State Department issued 22% fewer F-1 visas in May, while H-1B fees jumped to $100,000. College towns are suffering, as student-owned businesses close while net legal migration drops 700,000 annually.

📊 2.0% 

National multifamily rent growth held steady at 2.0% annually in September for the third consecutive month, below 3% inflation. Syracuse and Akron led gains at 6.9% and 6.2% while Cape Coral fell 4.8% amid Sun Belt corrections.

🏢 26.3%

Office visits in September were 26.3% below 2019 levels, rebounding from August's dip as fall routines resumed. San Francisco posted the largest YoY gain at 19.0% while Miami and New York continue leading the recovery.

🎁 37.3% 

Rental concessions hit record levels in September as 37.3% of Zillow listings offered incentives, up from 14.4% in 2019. Landlords prefer short-term perks over rent cuts as nationwide affordability improves amid subdued rent growth and record apartment construction levels.

🏘️ DEAL OF THE WEEK
TRIPLE NET CONVERSION LEADS TO 50% RENT INCREASE

David Hrizak and the team at Streamline Capital Group transformed a dated 1980s office building into a modern workplace, increasing effective rents by 50% while shifting all operating expenses to tenants through triple net leases.

Here's how the value creation worked 👇

🏢 Property details: This 39,372 SF, two-story office complex with 1980s-era finishes is located in Phoenix in a prime location near restaurants, highways, and strong amenities. The location offered easy highway access for commuters and nearby lunch options for tenant employees and clients.

💸 Finances: The team acquired the property for $5 million and invested an additional $750,000 in renovations.

💼 Business plan: The strategy involved converting the building from 1980s vintage to 2024 standards by creating spec move-in ready suites with new ceiling tiles, overhead lighting, paint, and flooring. Common area bathrooms were also upgraded. The renovation approach focused on what tenants "see, feel, and touch the most," with each 1,000 SF suite costing approximately $20,000 to remodel, an investment designed to last a full five-year lease term.

• The lease structure shift was equally important, transitioning from gross leases (where the landlord pays all expenses) to triple net leases (where tenants pay their proportionate share of utilities, taxes, insurance, and common area maintenance).

🍾 Results: Rents increased from $16 PSF gross to $17-18 PSF triple net, plus an additional $6 PSF in CAM charges. The true comparison: $24 gross versus $16 gross = a 50% effective rent increase.

The upgraded space also attracted higher-quality tenants, including attorneys and doctors willing to pay premium rates, replacing less professional businesses that "didn't care what the building looked like." Tenants now sign five, seven, and ten-year leases with all operating expenses passed through, significantly improving cash flow stability.

👉 If you have a deal you’d like to share with us, please email us here.

🎉 BEST EVER CONFERENCE
PITCH YOUR DEAL TO 1,000+ INVESTORS

Want to get on stage in front of 1,000+ eager investors? At the Best Ever Pitch Slam, syndicators and operators will pitch their deals LIVE in front of a packed room plus a panel of expert LPs who know exactly what it takes to get funded.

High-energy. High-stakes. And it could change your capital-raising game.

Here's how it works:

☑️ Apply for free (no deal required yet)

☑️ Complete a video interview if you advance

☑️ Finalists announced before the conference

☑️ Present your deal live at the Best Ever Conference in February

If you are a new/emerging syndicator ready to raise capital OR an experienced sponsor with a new opportunity to present, we’d love to hear from you.

Don't have a deal right now? No problem. You can pitch based on previous deals in your initial application, but you'll need an active deal by February.

⏰ REMINDER: Ticket prices increase November 1

If you're planning to attend the Best Ever Conference (whether you're pitching or not), lock in your ticket before November 1st to save. Get your conference ticket.